ISSN:
1573-8469
Keywords:
forecasting
;
infection
;
disease onset
;
peach
;
Taphrina deformans
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
Notes:
Abstract An Israeli model forecasting leaf curl disease on peaches caused by Taphrina deformans was validated in the Emilia-Romagna region of northern Italy, during a three-year period (1996–1998), in 13 cases (year × location × cultivar). When the peach trees are susceptible to infection, the model uses mathematical functions to calculate the risk of infection on the basis of weather conditions (daily rainfall greater than 10 mm, and maximum air temperature greater than 5°C), and it forecasts periods of possible symptom appearance based on the length of incubation. Peach trees became susceptible to infection between the end of January and mid March, when the first leaf buds attained phenological stage C, i.e. appearance of leaf apex. The trees remained susceptible for at least 9 weeks: the last infection occurred in mid-May. Since most of the leaf curl onsets observed in the orchards fell within the range of model forecasts, the model proved to be accurate in signalling both the first seasonal infection and repeated infections during the primary inoculum season. Few errors occurred, caused either by conditions of rainfall and temperature lower than the thresholds fixed in the model, or by discrepancies between forecast and actual length of incubation. Infection occurred also at 3.1–3.5°C, and with 9.6 mm rainfall. Thus, thresholds should not be accepted too rigorously, and perhaps temperature should not be considered as a limiting factor for infection under the conditions of the present work. The length of incubation showed high variability: it was 23 days long on average, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 20 to 27 days, and extreme values of 9 and 33 days.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008778814623
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