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  • 1995-1999  (5)
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Macmillan Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 391 (1998), S. 474-476 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Climate change is expected over the next century as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere, and global average sea level will consequently rise. Estimates indicate that by 2100 sea level will be about 500 mm higher than today as a result ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 13 (1997), S. 733-744 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract.  A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 13 (1997), S. 835-845 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract.  The contribution of glacier melt, including the Greenland ice-sheet, to sea-level change since AD 1865 is estimated on the basis of modelled sensitivity of glacier mass balance to climate change and historical temperature data. Calculations are done in a regionally differentiated manner to overcome the inhomogeneity of the global distribution of glaciers. A distinction is made between changes in summer temperature and in temperature over the rest of the year. Our best estimate of the ice melt in the period 1865–1990 in terms of sea-level change equivalent is 5.7 cm (2.7 cm for glaciers and 3.0 cm for the Greenland ice-sheet). Additional calculations show that simpler methods, like using annual or even global mean temperature anomaly give estimates that differ by up to 55%. Consequently, a regionally differentiating approach is advised for making projections of glacier melt with GCM output.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Dynamic ice-flow models for 12 glaciers and ice caps have been forced with various climate change scenarios. The volume of this sample spans three orders of magnitude. Six climate scenarios were considered: from 1990 onwards linear warming rates of 0.01, 0.02 and 0.04 K a-1, with and without concurrent changes in precipitation. The models, calibrated against the historic record of glacier length where possible, were integrated until 2100. The differences in individual glacier responses are very large. No straightforward relationship between glacier size and fractional change of ice volume emerges for any given climate scenario. The hypsometry of individual glaciers and ice caps plays an important role in their response, thus making it difficult to generalize results. For a warming rate of 0.04 K a-1, without increase in precipitation, results indicate that few glaciers would survive until 2100. On the other hand, if the warming rate were to be limited to 0.01 K a-1 with an increase in precipitation of 10% per degree warming, we predict that overall loss would be restricted to 10 to 20% of the 1990 volume.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1573-1472
    Keywords: Glacier melt ; Ice melt ; Katabatic flow ; Mass balance ; Energy balance ; Ablation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract We give an overview of a glacio-meteorological experiment carried out in the summer (melt season) of 1996 on the largest European ice cap, Vatnajökull, Iceland (area 8000 km2; altitude range: from sea level to about 2000 m). The main goal was to understand how the energy used in the melting of snow and ice is delivered to the surface. Many meteorological stations were operated simultaneously on the ice cap, at almost all of which profile measurements were made. Cable balloons and radiosondes were used to probe the vertical structure of the boundary layer. It appears that the flow near the surface is katabatic most of the time, with the height of the wind maximum varying between a few metres and a few tens of metres. It is only during the passage of intense storms that the katabatic wind in the melt zone disappears. Global radiation increases significantly with altitude. Surface albedo varies enormously in space and time, with very low values (≈ 0.1) being found at many places because of the melt out of volcanic ash layers. If we consider the total melt in the period 22 May–31 August 1996, we conclude that radiation typically provides two-thirds of the melt energy, and turbulent exchange of heat one-third. At locations high on the glacier, turbulent exchange becomes less significant.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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