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Notes: Abstract: Currently, few elderly women have a measurement of bone mineral density (BMD). The aim of this study was to assess the potential value of a two-step screening process to identify the elderly women who are at greatest risk of fracture because of very low BMD: (1) use simple clinical criteria to select women who are highly likely to have a very low BMD and (2) measure the BMD of the women so selected. We used baseline data from 6958 women aged 75 years or older who were participants in the EPIDOS prospective study of risk factors for hip fracture. The outcome variable was very low BMD measured at the femoral neck by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and defined as a T-score ≤−3.5. The factors most predictive of very low BMD were low weight, history of fracture after the age of 50 years, slow gait, balance impairment, low grip strength, and dependence for instrumental activities of daily living. A score based on the risk function including these factors has a sensitivity of 80% at the median cut-off. Hence, by measuring the BMD of only half the population, 80% of the women with very low BMD can be identified. Weight is the strongest determinant of very low BMD and has approximately the same sensitivity as the complete score. In conclusion, a risk score for very low BMD based on simple criteria such as weight could be a useful clinical tool to select elderly women for bone densitometry.

Notes: Abstract: We conducted a population-based cohort study in 7598 white healthy women, aged 75 years and over, recruited from the voting lists. We measured at baseline bone mineral density (BMD g/cm2) of the proximal femur (neck, trochanter and Ward's triangle) and the whole body, as well as fat and lean body mass, by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). One hundred and fifty-four women underwent a hip fracture during an average 2 years follow-up. Each standard deviation decrease in BMD increased the risk of hip fracture adjusted for age, weight and centre by 1.9 (95% CL 1.5, 2.3) for the femoral neck, 2.6 times (2.0, 3.3) for the trochanter, 1.8 times (1.4, 2.2) for Ward's triangle, 1.6 times (1.2, 2.0) for the whole body, and 1.3 times (1.0, 1.5) for the fat mass. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were not significantly different between trochanter and femoral neck BMD, whereas ROC curves of femoral neck and trochanter BMD were significantly better than those for Ward's triangle and whole-body BMD. emsp;Women who sustained an intertrochanteric fracture were older (84 ± 4.5 years) than women who had a cervical fracture (81 ± 4.5 years) and trochanter BMD seemed to be a stronger predictor of intertrochanteric ([RR = 4.5 (3.1, 6.5)] than cervical fractures ([RR = 1.8 (1.5, 2.3]). emsp;In very elderly women aged 80 years and more, hip BMD was still a significant predictor of hip fracture but the relative risk was significantly lower than in women younger than 80 years. emsp;In the 48% of women who had a femoral neck BMD T-score less than –2.5, the relative risk of hip fracture was increased by 3, and the unadjusted incidence of hip fracture was 16.4 per 1000 woman-years compared with 1.1 in the population with a femoral neck BMD T-score 5–1.

Notes: Abstract: Based on data from the EPIDOS prospective study, we have shown that femoral bone mineral density (BMD), calcaneal ultrasound measurements and fall-related factors are significant predictors of the risk of hip fracture. The goal of the present investigation, in the same cohort of elderly women, was (1) to assess and compare the value of femoral BMD, calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), gait speed and age for identifying elderly women at high risk of hip fracture and (2) to determine whether combining two or more of these measurements would improve predictive ability over single measures. A total of 5895 elderly women had baseline measurements of femoral neck BMD by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, calcaneal BUA and gait speed. During an average of 33 months of follow-up, 170 women suffered a hip fracture. We compared the sensitivity and specificity of single and combined measures for three specific cutoff levels to define high risk, i.e., the median, the top quartile and the top decile of risk. We found that femoral BMD, calcaneal BUA, gait speed and age have approximatively the same discriminant value to identify women at high risk of hip fracture even though certain measures and combinations of measures have a significantly higher sensitivity for certain cutoff levels. The sensitivity of the available screening tools is low, even when they are combined: to obtain a sensitivity of about 80%, approximately 50% of the population must be considered to be at high risk.

Notes: Abstract: We have previously shown that hip bone mineral density (BMD), heel broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and bone resorption markers are independent predictors of hip fracture in elderly women. We investigated whether a combination of these three parameters could improve the predictive value of a single test in a nested case–control analysis (75 hip fractures and 228 age-matched controls) of the EPIDOS prospective study comprising 7598 healthy women 75 years of age and older followed prospectively for a mean 22 months. At baseline, prior fracture, femoral neck BMD by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), heel BUA and urinary type I collagen C-telopeptide breakdown products (CTX) were assessed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was significant for the three diagnostic tests, heel BUA being the best single predictor. The added value of urinary CTX to either BMD or BUA depends on the cutoff point chosen to define patients at risk and on the therapeutic strategy that is considered. Defining patients at risk as those with low BMD (or low BUA) or high CTX resulted in a significant increase in the sensitivity compared with BMD or BUA alone – a strategy that could be applied when a broad treatment is considered. However, this increased sensitivity was also obtained simply by increasing the BMD and BUA cutoffs, suggesting that a combination of CTX with BMD/BUA is not useful for that type of treatment strategy. Conversely, defining patients at risk as those with both low BMD and high CTX increases the specificity (88% vs 78%) with a similar number of hip fracture patients being identified (30% vs 32%) – a combination that could be useful when the strategy is to target treatment to a subset of high-risk patients. This strategy appears to be more cost-effective than bone mass measurement alone as indicated by the 37% fewer patients who need to be treated to avoid one fracture per year. If DXA or ultrasound is not available, the combination of a bone resorption marker with a history of any type of fracture after the age of 50 years gave a predictive value similar to that obtained with femoral neck BMD or heel BUA alone, for both types of treatment strategy. We conclude that the combination of urinary CTX with hip BMD could be useful for the identification of elderly women at high risk for hip fracture, resulting in higher specificity for a given sensitivity threshold than BMD measurement alone. If DXA is not available, the combination of history of fracture and urinary CTX performs as well as hip BMD to assess hip fracture risk in elderly women.