ISSN:
1467-6435
Source:
Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
Topics:
Sociology
,
Economics
Notes:
This paper investigates the empirical relation between consumer and expert expectations about macroeconomic conditions in Germany. Using data from the EU Consumer Confidence Survey and the ZEW business expectations, static models and error-correction models are estimated explaining consumer expectations as functions of expert expectations, consumer retrospections, and lagged consumer expectations. It's found that consumer expectations are only weakly related to expert expectations, but strongly influenced by consumers' retrospections. Consumers primarily extrapolate perceptions about current economic conditions in the future. However, during national election campaigns, the relation between consumer and expert expectations is stronger.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0023-5962.2005.00295.x
Permalink
