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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate-change strategy needs to be robust (2001)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 412 (2001), S. 375-375 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Sir Stephen Schneider argues in his Commentary “What is 'dangerous' climate change?” (Nature 411, 17–19; 2001) that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change should assign subjective probabilities to ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/35086617
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 content (1998)
    [s.l.] : Macmillan Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 395 (1998), S. 881-884 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for “stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system . . . ”. A standard baseline ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/27638
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Negative or positive cloud optical depth feedback? (1988)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 335 (1988), S. 303-304 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] SIR-Roeckner et al.1 have reported results from a pair of general circulation model (GCM) simulations - a present-day control and a perturbation with the solar constant increased by 2 per cent - in which the cloud optical depth could vary through its dependence on the prognosti-cally calculated ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/335303c0
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years (1994)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 367 (1994), S. 723-726 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] For prescribed greenhouse-gas (GHG) and anthropogenic-sulphate-aerosol (ASA) radiative forcing, the global-mean temperature changes simulated by our simple hemispherically resolved climate/ocean model9'10 for a range of climate sensitivities, Ar2x, are compared to the IPCC-observed ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/367723a0
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Low-frequency oscillation (1994)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 372 (1994), S. 508-509 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] SCHLESINGER AND RAMANKUTTY REPLY - We have used our physical climate/ocean model and four statistical autoregressive models to simulate the response of the climate system to white-noise forcing, for both the globe and the North Atlantic6. Each of the five models is run 1,000 times ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/372508a0
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    How to make models for behaviour of clouds (1988)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 336 (1988), S. 315-316 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] In his commentary "Jumping the greenhouse gun1'1, John Maddox states that "The well-known weakness of the climatic models, in this connection, is that real clouds (as distinct from average cloudiness) are on the face of it a source of negative feedback that may substantially moderate the expected ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/336315b0
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A sequential-decision strategy for abating climate change (1992)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 357 (1992), S. 315-318 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] We characterize scientific uncertainties by the sensitivity AT2^ and the climate target1'2 AT* (or maximum realized value of AT(f)), implicitly chosen so that the present value (1992-2100) of the marginal costs of abatement equals that of damages after accounting for adaptation3. For the ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/357315a0
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Implications for global warming of intercycle solar irradiance variations (1992)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 360 (1992), S. 330-333 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] We use a hemispherically resolving version10 of our simple climate-ocean model which we used for IPCC/90 (ref. 11) and other studies12'14. The model calculates the change in hemispheric-mean surface air temperature (ATa) and ocean temperatures as a function of depth resulting from a change in ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/360330a0
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The transport of CO2-induced warming into the ocean: an analysis of simulations by the OSU coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (1988)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 3 (1988), S. 1-17 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The OSU global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model has been used to investigate a 2xCO2-induced climate change. A previous analysis of the simulated 2xCO2−1xCO2 temperature differences showed that the CO2-induced warming penetrated into the ocean and thereby caused a delay in the equilibration of the climate system with an estimatede-folding time of 50–75 years. The objective of the present study is to determine by what pathways and through which physical processes the simulated ocean general circulation produces the penetration of the CO2-induced warming into the ocean. A global-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the ocean gains heat at a rate of 3 W/m2 due to the CO2 doubling, and that this heat penetrates downward into the ocean predominantly through the reduction in the convective overturning. A zonal-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the surface warming increases from the tropics toward the midlatitudes of both hemispheres and gradually penetrated into the deeper ocean, with a greater penetration in the subtropics and midlatitudes than in the equatorial region. The zonal-mean heat budget analysis also shows that the CO2-induced warming of the ocean occurs predominantly through the down-ward transport of heat, with the meridional heat flux being only of secondary importance. In the tropics the penetration of the CO2-induced heating is minimized by the upwelling of cold water. In the subtropics the heating is transported down-ward more readily by the downwelling existing there. In the high latitudes the suppressed convection plays the dominant role in the downward penetration of the CO2-induced heating. The latter result should be considered as tentative, however, as the ocean component of the coupled model employed a prescribed surface salinity field and did not include the mechanism of brine rejection when sea water freezes into sea ice.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01089369
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    When we don't know the costs or the benefits: Adaptive strategies for abating climate change (1996)
    Springer
    Climatic change 33 (1996), S. 235-274 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Most quantitative studies of climate-change policy attempt to predict the greenhouse-gas reduction plan that will have the optimum balance of long-term costs and benefits. We find that the large uncertainties associated with the climate-change problem can make the policy prescriptions of this traditional approach unreliable. In this study, we construct a large uncertainty space that includes the possibility of large and/or abrupt climate changes and/or of technology breakthroughs that radically reduce projected abatement costs. We use computational experiments on a linked system of climate and economic models to compare the performance of a simple adaptive strategy - one that can make midcourse corrections based on observations of the climate and economic systems - and two commonly advocated ‘best-estimate’ policies based on different expectations about the longterm consequences of climate change. We find that the ‘Do-a-Little’ and ‘Emissions-Stabilization’ best-estimate policies perform well in the respective regions of the uncertainty space where their estimates are valid, but can fail severely in those regions where their estimates are wrong. In contrast, the adaptive strategy can make midcourse corrections and avoid significant errors. While its success is no surprise, the adaptive-strategy approach provides an analytic framework to examine important policy and research issues that will likely arise as society adapts to climate change, which cannot be easily addressed in studies using best-estimate approaches.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00140248
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