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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-12-19
    Description: Agent-based epidemiological models have been applied widely successfully during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and assisted policymakers in assessing the effectiveness of intervention strategies. The computational complexity of agent-based models is still challenging, and therefore it is important to utilize modern multi-core systems as good as possible. In this paper, we are presenting our work on parallelizing the epidemiological simulation model MATSim Episim. Episim combines a large-scale person-centric human mobility model with a mechanistic model of infection and a person-centric disease progression model. In general, the parallelization of agent-based models with an inherent sequential structure — in the case of epidemiological models, the temporal order of the individual movements of the agents — is challenging. Especially when the underlying social network is irregular and dynamic, they require frequent communication between the processing elements. In Episim, however, we were able to take advantage of the fact that people are not contagious on the same day they become infected, and therefore immediate health synchronization is not required. By parallelizing some of the most computationally intensive submodels, we are now able to run MATSim Episim simulations up to eight times faster than the serial version. This makes it feasible to increase the number of agents, e.g. to run simulations for the whole of Germany instead of just Berlin as before.
    Language: English
    Type: conferenceobject , doc-type:conferenceObject
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-04-26
    Description: Tackling societal challenges relating to sustainability requires both an understanding of the underlying complex socio-ecological systems and participation of scientists as well as relevant stakeholders, such as practice experts, decision makers, and citizens. This paper introduces the Decision Theatre Triangle, a method which combines empirical information, mathematical modelling and simulation, and a format for dialogue between scientists and stakeholders. While it builds on previous Decision Theatre work, the new structuring into these three elements emphasizes what is needed for setting up a Decision Theatre for a given challenge. Based on experience with a specific example – sustainable mobility in Germany – it is argued that agent-based models are particularly suitable for Decision Theatres and that the method is useful not only for decision support but also for science communication and co-creation of a deeper knowledge of the system under discussion. As a step towards facilitating a broader use of the Decision Theatre Triangle method, the paper then sketches research needs for each of its three elements, with a focus on mathematical modelling and simulation.
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: This paper explores memory mechanisms in complex socio-technical systems, using a mobility demand model as an example case. We simplified a large-scale agent-based mobility model into a Markov process and discover that the mobility decision process is non-Markovian. This is due to its dependence on the system’s history, including social structure and local infrastructure, which evolve based on prior mobility decisions. To make the process Markovian, we extend the state space by incorporating two history-dependent components. Although our model is a very much reduced version of the original one, it remains too complex for the application of usual analytic methods. Instead, we employ simulations to examine the functionalities of the two history-dependent components. We think that the structure of the analyzed stochastic process is exemplary for many socio-technical, -economic, -ecological systems. Additionally, it exhibits analogies with the framework of extended evolution, which has previously been used to study cultural evolution.
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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