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  • 1
    ISSN: 1434-9949
    Keywords: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ; Prediction of Outcome
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Medicine
    Notes: Summary The predictive value of a number of clinical and laboratory variables for the mortality of 148 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with a mean observation period of 8 years and a 10-year-survival of 80 per cent was calculated by means of differentiated survival rate analyses and stepwise regression analyses. The predictive power of several variables increased if the calculations were based on deaths caused by SLE rather than on the total mortality rate. The survival rate decreased after 1973 because a diagnosis of SLE was made in some patients with terminal disease who would have remained without a diagnosis before that time. The causes of death and the treatment were identical before and after 1973. The presence of a high number of diagnostic ARA criteria within the first year of observation was a predictor of decreased survival. Severe but non-fatal infections (meningitis, septicemia, pneumonia) significantly reduced the survival rate. Patients with proteinuria and azotemia, within the first 2 years of observation, had a 10-year-survival of 70 per cent. The survival of patients with CNS manifestations was not significantly reduced. The butterfly rash and the presence of lymphopenia were predictors of decreased survival, whereas the presence of DNA antibodies had no predictive value for survival.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1434-9949
    Keywords: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ; Classification ; Clinical Findings ; Outcome
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Medicine
    Notes: Summary The present paper is a description of 148 patients with circulating antinuclear antibodies and multisystemic disease filed during 18 years by one of the authors and followed up to date in 1981–83. Seventy-eight per cent of the patients satisfied the 1971 ARA criteria for the classification of systemic lupus erythematosus and 92 per cent fulfilled the 1982 ARA criteria. Eighty-five per cent were women, the mean age at onset of SLE was 32 years. Malar rash and arthritis were early manifestations in 80 per cent of the patients whereas the onset of nephropathy, CNS manifestations, serositis, and peripheral cytopenia was delayed in about half of the patients. Nephropathy and thrombocytopenia were observed particularly in the youngest patients. The mean duration of the observation period was 8 years. The 10-year-survival was 80 per cent. Half of the deaths were presumably unrelated to SLE. The mean ages at entry of patients who died of SLE and of unrelated causes were 30 and 52 years respectively. Eighteen per cent of the deaths were caused by uremia and 18 per cent by infections. The total and the SLE related mortalities were evenly distributed throughout the observation period. The morbidity (incidence of new ARA criteria and other findings indicating active disease) decreased during the first year of observation but rarely subsided completely during the following years. All patients observed for more than 10 years showed evidence of active disease during the rest of the observation period and most showed evidence of renal disease.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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