ISSN:
1573-1596
Keywords:
uncertainty
;
risk
;
adaptation
;
extreme events
;
(credible) information
;
integrated assessment
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
,
Geography
Notes:
Abstract This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the "tails" of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009619806936
Permalink
