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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    A Probabilistic Transmission Model of Salmonella in the Primary Broiler Production Chain (2002)
    Oxford UK : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Annual data from the Finnish National Salmonella Control Programme were used to build up a probabilistic transmission model of salmonella in the primary broiler production chain. The data set consisted of information on grandparent, parent, and broiler flock populations. A probabilistic model was developed to describe the unknown true prevalences, vertical and horizontal transmissions, as well as the dynamical model of infections. By combining these with the observed data, the posterior probability distributions of the unknown parameters and variables could be derived. Predictive distributions were derived for the true number of infected broiler flocks under the adopted intervention scheme and these were compared with the predictions under no intervention. With the model, the effect of the intervention used in the programme, i.e., eliminating salmonella positive breeding flocks, could be quantitatively assessed. The 95% probability interval of the posterior predictive distribution for (broiler) flock prevalence under current (1999) situation was [1.3%–17.4%] (no intervention), and [0.9%–5.8%] (with intervention). In the scenario of one infected grandparent flock, these were [2.8%–43.1%] and [1.0%–5.9%], respectively. Computations were performed using WinBUGS and Matlab softwares.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.t01-1-00004
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  • 2
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Estimation of True Salmonella Prevalence Jointly in Cattle Herd and Animal Populations Using Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: The Finnish salmonella control program (FSCP) for beef production is based on both randomized and selective testing of herds and animals. Sampling of individual animals in abattoirs is randomized. Herds are selectively tested for salmonella on the basis of clinical symptoms and/or other factors. Risk assessment of FSCP is inherently difficult due to the complexity of the complete data set, especially if the detailed labeling of the testing types is lost. However, for a risk assessment of the whole production chain, methods for exploiting all available data should be considered. For this purpose, a hierarchical Bayesian model of true salmonella prevalence was constructed to combine information at different levels of aggregation: herds in geographical regions and individual animals arriving for slaughter. The conditional (municipality specific) probability of selection of a herd for testing was modeled given the underlying true infection status of the herd and information about the general sampling activity in the specific region. The model also accounted for the overall sensitivity of the sampling methods, both at the herd and at the animal level. In 1999, the 95% posterior probability intervals of true salmonella prevalence in the herd population, in individual cattle, and in slaughter animal populations were [0.54%, 1.4%] (mode 0.8%), [0.15%, 0.39%] (mode 0.2%), and [0.12%, 0.36%] (mode 0.2%), respectively. The results will be further exploited in other risk assessments focusing on the subsequent parts of the beef production chain, and in evaluation of the FSCP.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00564.x
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  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Biogenic Amines in Dry Sausages as Affected by Starter Culture and Contaminant Amine-Positive Lactobacillus (1996)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of food science 61 (1996), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1750-3841
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft , Werkstoffwissenschaften, Fertigungsverfahren, Fertigung
    Notizen: The effect of an amine-negative starter culture, containing Pediococcus pentosaceus and Staphylococcus carnosus, on the growth and amine formation of an amine-positive contaminant lactic acid bacterium (G 106) was studied in dry sausages. Levels of biogenic amines, precursor amino acids, pH, water activity and microbial counts were measured. Levels of phenylethylamine and tyramine increased in the sausages inoculated with the amine-positive strain. The starter culture did not prevent growth of G 106 or its amine formation capability. However, levels of histamine remained low although G 106 could produce histamine in vitro.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2621.1996.tb10970.x
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