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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-02-22
    Beschreibung: We consider the problem of verifying linear properties of neural networks. Despite their success in many classification and prediction tasks, neural networks may return unexpected results for certain inputs. This is highly problematic with respect to the application of neural networks for safety-critical tasks, e.g. in autonomous driving. We provide an overview of algorithmic approaches that aim to provide formal guarantees on the behavior of neural networks. Moreover, we present new theoretical results with respect to the approximation of ReLU neural networks. On the other hand, we implement a solver for verification of ReLU neural networks which combines mixed integer programming (MIP) with specialized branching and approximation techniques. To evaluate its performance, we conduct an extensive computational study. For that we use test instances based on the ACAS Xu System and the MNIST handwritten digit data set. Our solver is publicly available and able to solve the verification problem for instances which do not have independent bounds for each input neuron.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: article , doc-type:article
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-09-22
    Beschreibung: Germany is the largest market for natural gas in the European Union, with an annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic meters. Germany's high-pressure gas pipeline network is roughly 40,000 km long, which enables highly fluctuating quantities of gas to be transported safely over long distances. Considering that similar amounts of gas are also transshipped through Germany to other EU states, it is clear that Germany's gas transport system is essential to the European energy supply. Since the average velocity of gas in a pipeline is only 25km/h, an adequate high-precision, high-frequency forecasting of supply and demand is crucial for efficient control and operation of such a transmission network. We propose a deep learning model based on spatio-temporal convolutional neural networks (DLST) to tackle the problem of gas flow forecasting in a complex high-pressure transmission network. Experiments show that our model effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling gas networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks on real-world data sets by at least 21%. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can deal with complex nonlinear gas network flow forecasting with high accuracy and effectiveness.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: article , doc-type:article
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-11-24
    Beschreibung: About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: article , doc-type:article
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-12-06
    Beschreibung: As a result of the legislation for gas markets introduced by the European Union in 2005, separate independent companies have to conduct the transport and trading of natural gas. The current gas market of Germany, which has a market value of more than 54 billion USD, consists of Transmission System Operators (TSO), network users, and traders. Traders can nominate a certain amount of gas anytime and anywhere in the network. Such unrestricted access for the traders, on the other hand, increase the uncertainty in the gas supply management. Some customers’ behaviors may cause abrupt structural changes in gas flow time series. In particular, it is a challenging task for the TSO operators to predict gas nominations 6 to 10 h-ahead. In our study, we aim to investigate the regime changes in time series of nominations to predict the 6 to 10 h-ahead of gas nominations.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: conferenceobject , doc-type:conferenceObject
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-01-09
    Beschreibung: This work presents an innovative short to mid-term forecasting model that analyzes nonlinear complex spatial and temporal dynamics in energy networks under demand and supply balance constraints using Network Nonlinear Time Series (TS) and Mathematical Programming (MP) approach. We address three challenges simultaneously, namely, the adjacency matrix is unknown; the total amount in the network has to be balanced; dependence is unnecessarily linear. We use a nonparametric approach to handle the nonlinearity and estimate the adjacency matrix under the sparsity assumption. The estimation is conducted with the Mathematical Optimisation method. We illustrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the model on the example of the natural gas transmission network of one of the largest transmission system operators (TSOs) in Germany, Open Grid Europe. The obtained results show that, especially for shorter forecasting horizons, proposed method outperforms all considered benchmark models, improving the avarage nMAPE for 5.1% and average RMSE for 79.6% compared to the second-best model. The model is capable to capture the nonlinear dependencies in the complex spatial-temporal network dynamics and benefits from both sparsity assumption and the demand and supply balance constraint.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: article , doc-type:article
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-02
    Beschreibung: With annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic meters and similar amounts of gas just transshipped through Germany to other EU states, Germany’s gas transport system plays a vital role in European energy supply. The complex, more than 40,000 km long high-pressure transmission network is controlled by several transmission system operators (TSOs) whose main task is to provide security of supply in a cost-efficient way. Given the slow speed of gas flows through the gas transmission network pipelines, it has been an essential task for the gas network operators to enhance the forecast tools to build an accurate and effective gas flow prediction model for the whole network. By incorporating the recent progress in mathematical programming and time series modeling, we aim to model natural gas network and predict gas in- and out-flows at multiple supply and demand nodes for different forecasting horizons. Our model is able to describe the dynamics in the network by detecting the key nodes, which may help to build an optimal management strategy for transmission system operators.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: conferenceobject , doc-type:conferenceObject
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-01-24
    Beschreibung: Due to the coexistence of different gases in underground storage, this work explores the interface stability's impact on energy storage, specifically during the injection and withdrawal of gases such as hydrogen and natural gas. A new approach of combing simulation and time series analysis is used to accurately predict instability modes in energy systems. Our simulation is based on the 2D Euler equations, solved using a second-order finite volume method with a staggered grid. The solution is validated by comparing them to experimental data and analytical solutions, accurately predicting the instability's behavior. We use time series analysis and state-of-the-art regime-switching methods to identify critical features of the interface dynamics, providing crucial insights into system optimization and design.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: article , doc-type:article
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-01-26
    Beschreibung: Energy systems are complex networks consisting of various interconnected components. Accurate energy demand and supply forecasts are crucial for efficient system operation and decision-making. However, high-dimensional data, complex network structures, and dynamic changes and disruptions in energy networks pose significant challenges for forecasting models. To address this, we propose a hybrid approach for resilient forecasting of network time series (HRF-NTS) in the energy domain. Our approach combines mathematical optimization methods with state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to achieve accurate and robust forecasts for high-dimensional energy network time series. We incorporate an optimization framework to account for uncertainties and disruptive changes in the energy system. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a case study of forecasting energy demand and supply in a complex, large-scale natural gas transmission network. The results show that the hybrid approach outperforms alternative prediction models in terms of accuracy and resilience to structural changes and disruptions, providing stable, multi-step ahead forecasts for different short to mid-term forecasting horizons.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: conferenceobject , doc-type:conferenceObject
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