Publication Date:
2014-03-06
Description:
The rapidly increasing number of AIDS cases requires a realistic estimation of the future development of the HIV/AIDS disease. For that purpose we develop a large system of coupled nonlinear differential equations describing simultaneously the dynamics of the development of the disease, the population size, the gender and age structure. A set of 1650 coupled equations are linked by balanced parameters. The balancing procedure is described by a set of (formally) 2,178,000 additional algebraic conditions. As the considered system is stiff, it requires new special extrapolation methods combined with techniquees of dynamical sparsing for the solution of sparsely filled systems. According to our simulations we expect 19,0,000 deaths caused by AIDS in the Federal Republic of Germany (former territories) in the year 2000. Such an epidemical spread would tie up about 4-7 percent of the actual health care workers.
Keywords:
ddc:000
Language:
German
Type:
reportzib
,
doc-type:preprint
Format:
application/pdf
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