Skip to main content
Log in

Visualizing Impact Probabilities of Space Debris

  • Published:
Space Debris

Abstract

We present a new method to assess and visualize the collision risk due to space debris for an orbiting spacecraft. It is based on a parameter space derived from Öpik's studies of close approaches between small Solar System bodies and the planets. By means of this representation, many useful insights into the dynamics of the overall debris population with respect to a selected target can be obtained. The method can also be applied to estimate the increase in impact hazard (e.g., for the International Space Station) associated to fragmentation events occurring on a specific orbit.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • B. Bertotti and P. Farinella. Physiscs of the Earth and the Solar System. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  • A Cordelli, P. Farinella and A. Rossi. The Influence of the Fragmentation Threshold on the Long Term Evolution of the Orbital Debris Population. Planetary and Space Science, 46: 691-699, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  • D.J. Kessler. Derivation of the Collision Probability between Orbiting Objects: The Lifetime of Jupiter's Moons. Icarus, 48: 39-48, 1981.

    Google Scholar 

  • D.J. Kessler, J. Zhang, M.J. Matney, PA. Rossi, C. Pardini, L. Anselmo., Eichler, R.C. Reynolds, P.D. Anz-Meador and E.G. Stansbery. A Computer-Based Orbital Debris Environment Model for Spacecraft Design and Observations in Low-Earth Orbit. NASA TM-104825, 1996.

  • H. Klinkrad. Collision Risk Analysis for Low Earth Orbits. Advances in Space Research, 13(8): 177-186, 1993.

    Google Scholar 

  • E.J. Öpik. Interplanetary Encounters. Elsevier, New York, USA, 1976.

    Google Scholar 

  • C. Pardini and L. Anselmo. Space Debris Impact Risk Analysis Tool. CNUCE Internal Report B4-1998-015, 1998.

  • C. Pardini, A. Cordelli, A. Rossi, L. Anselmo and P. Farinella. The Contribution of Past Fragmentation Events to the Uncatalogued Orbital Debris Population, paper AAS 95-348, Advances in the Astronautical Sciences, Astrodynamics 1995, 90: 809-828, 1996.

    Google Scholar 

  • A. Rossi and P. Farinella. Collision Rate and Impact Velocities for Bodies in Low Earth Orbit. ESA Journal, 16: 339-348, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  • A. Rossi, A. Cordelli, P. Farinella and L. Anselmo. Collisional Evolution of the Earth's Orbital Debris Cloud. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99(E11): 23 195-23 210, 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  • A. Rossi, C. Pardini, L. Anselmo, A. Cordelli and P. Farinella. Effects of the RORSAT NaK Drops on the Long Term Evolution of the Space Debris Population. Paper IAA-97-IAA.6.4.07, 48th International Astronautical Congress, Torino, Italy, 6-10 October 1997.

  • A. Rossi, C. Pardini, L. Anselmo, A. Cordelli and P. Farinella. Interaction of the Satellite Constellations with the Low Earth Orbit Debris Environment. In J.C. van der Ha, editor, Mission Design and Implementation of Satellite Constellations. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pages 327-335, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  • A. Rossi, G.B. Valsecchi and P. Farinella. Risk of Collisions for Constellation Satellites. Nature, 399: 743-744, 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  • H. Sdunnus. Final Report, Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference Model. ESA/ESOC Contract No. 10453/93/D/CS, 1995.

  • R.B. Southworth and G.S. Hawkins. Statistics of Meteor Streams, Smithsonian Contributions to Astrophysics, 7: 261-285, 1963.

    Google Scholar 

  • S.Y. Su. The Velociy Distribution of the Collisional Fragments and its Effect on the Future Space Debris Environment. Advances in Space Research, 10: 389-392, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  • G.B. Valsecchi. Recent Advances in Cometary Dynamics. Proceedings of the Asteroid, Comets, Meteors 96 Conference, Paris, 1996 (in press).

  • W. Wiesel. Fragmentation of Asteroids and Artificial Satellites in Orbit, Icarus 34: 99-116, 1978.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. Rossi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Valsecchi, G., Rossi, A. & Farinella, P. Visualizing Impact Probabilities of Space Debris. Space Debris 1, 143–158 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026568809585

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026568809585

Navigation