Abstract
In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K sf ,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM L ≥1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM L =3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M M ) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8.
The algorithm for calculatingK sf used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK sf within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM L ≥5.3 and 5.4≥1.8 for targets withM L ≥5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM L ≥5.8 occurred in areas whereK sf was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK sf values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time.
Regions where the value ofK sf was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK sf values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM L ≥5.3 since 1948.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Habermann, R. E. (1983),Teleseismic Detection in the Aleutian Island Arc, J. Geophys. Res.88, 5056–5064.
Miachkin, V. I., Kostrov, B. V., Sobolev, G. A., andShamina, O. G. (1975),Principles of Source Physics and Earthquake Precursors, Phys. Earth. Source, Nauka, Moscow, 6–29.
Sobolev, G., Chelidze, T., Zavyalov, A., Slavina, L., andNikoladze, V. (1991),Maps of Expected Earthquakes Based on a Combination of Parameters, Tectonophysics193, 255–265.
Sobolev, G., andZavyalov, A.,A concentration criteria for seismoactive faults. InEarthquake Prediction: An International Review (eds. Simpson, D. W., and Richards, P. G.) (AGU, Washington D.C. 1981).
Thatcher, W., andHanks, T. (1973),Source Parameters of Southern California Earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res.78, 8547–8576.
Zavyalov, A., andSobolev, G.,Some Regularities of Seismic Regime and Earthquake Prediction. Proc. of the 17th Assembly of the ESC, Budapest, Hungarian Academy of Science, Budapest, Hungary, 1980.
Zhurkov, S. N., andNarsulaev, B. N. (1953),The Temporal Dependence of Solids Strength, J. Tech. Phys.23, 1953.
Zhurkov, S. N. et al. (1977),On the Prediction of Rock Failure, Izvestia of Academy of Science USSR, Physics of the Earth6, 11–18.
References
Biometrika Tables for Statisticans (eds. Pearson, E. S., and Hartley, H. O.) (Cambridge University Press 1970) vols. 1,2.
Bol'shev, L. N., andSmirnov, N. V.,Tablitsy Matematicheskoi Statistiki [Mathematical Statistics Tables], 3rd ed. Moscow, Nauka 1983), 416 pp., in Russian.
Hilman, J. A., Allen, C. R., andNordquist, J. M. (1973),Seismicity of the Southern California Region, 1 January 1932 to 31 December 1972, Cal. Inst. Technology, Pasadena, CA, U.S.A.
Hutton, L. K., andJones L. M. (1993),Local Magnitudes and Apparent Variations in Seismicity Rates in Southern California. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.83, 313–329.
Reasenberg, P. (1985),Second-order Moment of Central California Seismicity, 1969–1982, J. Geophys. Res.90, 5479–5495.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zavyalov, A., Habermann, R.E., Zavyalov, A.D. et al. Case 25 application of the concentration parameter of seismoactive faults to Southern California. PAGEOPH 149, 129–146 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00945164
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00945164