Use of Statistical Models to Analyze Periodic Seismicity Observed for Clusters in the Kanto Region, Central Japan

Abstract

—A periodic pattern of seismicity has been reported for the Kinugawa cluster in the Kanto region, where several earthquake clusters are observed at depths between 40 and 90 km. To analyze this periodicity, statistical studies are performed for the Kinugawa cluster together with eight other clusters. Hypocentral parameters of the earthquakes with magnitudes 4.5 and larger for the period between 1950 and 1995 are taken from the JMA catalogue. The simple sinusoidal function, the exponential of sinusoidal function and the stress release model are applied as the intensity function. Model parameters are determined by the maximum likelihood method and the best model for each cluster is selected by using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In six cases the sinusoidal model or the exponential of the sinusoidal model is selected as the best option and achieves AIC reductions of values between 2.4 and 13.2 units from the simple Poisson model. The stress release model is selected for two clusters. The three clusters, the Kinugawa, Kasumigaura, and Choshi clusters, have a similar optimal period of about 10 years, and align in the northwest–southeast direction at a similar depth range of 40 to 70 km. A model modified from the stress release model is applied to the three clusters so to analyze the relationship among them. In the modified model, an earthquake occurrence in one zone increases the stress in the other zone, which is different from the original stress release model which assumes a linear increase with time. Applying the modified model to the Kinugawa cluster, an AIC reduction from the Poisson model is significantly larger than the value obtained with the sinusoidal model. This suggests that the periodic seismicity observed for the Kinugawa cluster can be explained with the more comprehensive model than the sinusoidal model.