Abstract
Using a computer simulation for a series of births subject to various congenital malformations, the surveillance performance of the Multicommunity Sets Technique (MST) was compared to that of the Cumulative Sum Technique (CUSUM). Increases in malformation frequencies were simulated in (i) 6 out of 6 centres and (ii) only 3 out of 6 centres. MST was neither more sensitive nor more specific than CUSUM, and signalled increases with greater delay. One type of CUSUM procedure showed to accumulate more false alarms than MST in long periods of surveillance at the baseline malformation rate. The advantage of CUSUM was also shown for a single malformation with a very low baseline incidence, which according to Chen et al. (4983) should have been particularly suitable for MST surveillance.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bailar, J.C. and Ederer, F. (1964)Significance factors for the ratio of a Poisson variable to its expectation. - Biometrics, 20: 639–643.
Barbujani, G. and Calzolari, E, (1984): Comparison of two statistical techniques for the surveillance of birth defects through a Montecarlo simulation.- Stat. Med. 3: 239–247.
Barbujani, G. and Calzolari, E. (1985): Performance of three techniques for the surveillance of congenital malformations. A computer simulation test. In De Wals, P., Weatherall, J.A.C., Lechat, F., editors: Registration of congenital anomalies in EUROCAT centres 1979–1983. - pp. 225–232, Cabay, Louvain-la-neuve.
Barbujani, G., Calzolari, E. (1985): Author's reply. Comparison of two statistical techniques for the surveillance of birth defects through a Montecarlo simulation. - Stat. Med. 4: 390–391.
Chen, R. (1978): A surveillance system for congenital malformations. - J. Amer. Stat. Ass. 73: 323–327.
Chen, R. (1979): Statistical techniques in birth defects surveillance systems. - Contr. Epid. Biostatist., 1: 184–189. Karger, Basel.
Chen, R. (1985): Letter to the Editor. Comparison of two statistical techniques for the surveillance of birth defects through a Montecarlo simulation.- Stat. Med. 4: 389–390.
Chen, R., Mantel, N., Connelly, R.R. and Isacson, P. (1982): A monitoring system for chronic diseases.- Meth. Inform. Med. 21: 86–90.
Chen, R., McDowell, M., Tertian, E., WeatherallJ.A.C. (1983): Eurocat Guide to Monitoring Methods for Malformation Registers. - EEC Concerted Action Project Eurocat, Bruxelles.
Ewan, W.D. and Kemp, K.W. (1960): Sampling inspection of continuous processes with no autocorrelation between successive results.- Biometrika 47: 363–380.
Healy, M.J.R. (1983): A simple method for monitoring routine statistics. - The Statistician 32: 347–349.
Hill, G.B., Spicer, C.C. and Weatherall, J.A.C. (1968): The computer surveillance of congenital malformations.- Brit. Med. Bull. 24: 215–218.
Levin, B. (1969): Simulation of genetic systems. In Morton, N.E., editor: Computer applications in genetics. - University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu.
McNeil, B.J. and Adelstein, S.G. (1976): Determining the value of diagnostic and screening tests. - J. Nuclear Med. 17: 439–448.
Morton, N.E. and Lindsten, J. (1976): Surveillance of Down's syndrome as a paradigm of population monitoring. Hum. Hered. 26: 360–371.
Weatherall, J.A.C. and Haskey, J.C. (1976): Surveillance of malformations. - Brit. Med. Bull. 32: 39–44.
Woodward, R.H. and Goldsmith, P.L. (1967): Cumulative Sum Techniques. - Oliver & Boyd, Edimburgh-London.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Barbujani, G., Ceccherini, I. & Russo, A. Surveillance of birth defects: The multicommunity sets technique tested by computer simulation. Eur J Epidemiol 2, 52–62 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152719
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152719