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A survey of possible effects of long-lasting absence of solar activity on climate and some speculations on possible mechanisms

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Abstract

This paper deals with the prolonged lack (or existence) of solar activity, such as the Maunder or Spörer minima, since considerable climatic changes barely occur within a shorter time interval. For this aim, first the possible influences of the present-day 11-yr solar cycle are considered for higher atmospheric regions, and found scarcely to be responsible for inducing climatic changes. On the other hand, solar activity-generated changes of the solar parameter in the visible spectrum are estimated too. The results of these simple considerations indicate that the external manifestations of the solar cycle hardly can cause observable change in the tropospheric weather (and so the long-lasting solar quiets seem not climatically significant), and seem indirectly to support the possibility, that the Milankovitch mechanism plays an important role in forcing the ice-age oscillations at least during the Quaternary period. Besides it can be concluded, that greater (≥ 0.1%, measured from satellite platform) solar parameter variations cannot be in close connection with the known forms of solar activity, which suggest that the possible, significant secular solar luminosity changes could be generated deep inside the Sun and/or could not be closely related to the sunspot cycle.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Atmospheric Physics, P.O. Box 39, H-1675, Budapest, Hungary

    G. Y. Molnár

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  1. G. Y. Molnár
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Editor’s note. This article serves as a survey of much of the recent literature on sun/climate effects. It also includes some of the author’s speculations on problems and prospects of certain solar/terrestrial mechanisms. As the entire solar/terrestrial field is, at present, marked by controversies, it is not surprising that reviewers of this article had mixed feelings, particularly in regards to the speculations on solar/terrestrial mechanism. Nevertheless, the article is published to help stimulate and encourage further debate and follow-up studies on the interdisciplinary question of sun/climate relationships.

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Molnár, G.Y. A survey of possible effects of long-lasting absence of solar activity on climate and some speculations on possible mechanisms. Climatic Change 3, 189–203 (1981). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02423179

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02423179

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