Application of the CN Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction Algorithm to the Area of the Southern External Dinarides

Abstract

—The paper presents the results of application of the CN algorithm to the area of the Southern External Dinarides. Two cases are considered—one for the knowledge gained throughout the considered period of time (1936–1996), and the other when learning ceased in 1986. In the first case 8 out of 9 strong earthquakes could have been predicted, three false alarms are declared (covering 7% of the total time considered) and TIPs occupy 32% of the total time. There is no clear relation between the TIPs duration and the size of the related earthquake. The second case (when the CN functions are defined on the basis of a shorter learning period) produces even slightly better results: only two false alarms are declared. In both cases current alarm exists in the region. All attempts to reduce the area of the regional polygon resulted in poorer prediction results.