Abstract
This paper deals with the prolonged lack (or existence) of solar activity, such as the Maunder or Spörer minima, since considerable climatic changes barely occur within a shorter time interval. For this aim, first the possible influences of the present-day 11-yr solar cycle are considered for higher atmospheric regions, and found scarcely to be responsible for inducing climatic changes. On the other hand, solar activity-generated changes of the solar parameter in the visible spectrum are estimated too. The results of these simple considerations indicate that the external manifestations of the solar cycle hardly can cause observable change in the tropospheric weather (and so the long-lasting solar quiets seem not climatically significant), and seem indirectly to support the possibility, that the Milankovitch mechanism plays an important role in forcing the ice-age oscillations at least during the Quaternary period. Besides it can be concluded, that greater (≥ 0.1%, measured from satellite platform) solar parameter variations cannot be in close connection with the known forms of solar activity, which suggest that the possible, significant secular solar luminosity changes could be generated deep inside the Sun and/or could not be closely related to the sunspot cycle.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Birchfield, C. E.: 1977, ‘A Study of the Stability of a Model Continental Ice Sheet Subject to Periodic Variations, in Heat Input’.J. Geophys. Res. 82, 4909–4913.
Bucha, V.: 1977, ‘Cases of Glaciations Climate and Weather Changes’ (Possible Mechanism of Solar-Terrestrial Processes). Project 73/1/24,Quaternary Glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere, J.Report No. 4, Prague, pp. 8–36.
Callis, L. B., and Nealy, J. E.: 1978, Solar UV Variability and its Effect on Stratospheric Thermal Structure and Trace Constituents.Geophys. Res. Let. 5, 249–252.
Callis, L. B., Natarajan, M., and Nealy, J. E.: 1979, Ozone and Temperature Trends Associated with the 11-yr Solar Cycle.Science 204, 1303–1306.
Cook, E. R., and Jacoby, G. C.: 1979, ‘Evidence for Quasi-Periodic July Drought in the Hudson Valley’, New York.Nature 282, 390–392.
Dearborn, S. P., and Newman, M. J.: 1978, Efficiency of Convection and Time Variation of the Solar Constant.Science 201, 150.
Delobeau, F.: 1976,The Environment of the Earth, D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland, p. 9.
Dessler, A. J.: 1975,In Possible Relationships between Solar Activity and Meteorological Phenomena. NASA-SP-366 NASA, Washington.
Dicke, R. H.: 1978, Is there a Chronometer Hidden Deep in the Sun?Nature 276, 676.
Dicke, R. H.: 1979, Solar Luminosity and the Sunspot Cycle.Nature 280, 24–27.
Eddy, J. A.: 1976, ‘The Maunder Minimum’,Science 192, 1189.
Eddy, J. A.: 1977, ‘The Case of the Missing Sunspots’,Scientific American 236, 80.
Eddy, J. A., Noyes, R. W., Wolbach, J. G., and Boornazion, A.: 1978, ‘Secular Changes in Solar Rotation, 1888–1964’.Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 10, 400–401.
Epstein, S., and Yapp, C. J.: 1976,Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 30, 252.
Gruza, G. V., and Rankova, E.: 1979,Data of Climate Structure and Variability: Sea Surface air Temperature; Northern Hemisphere, The U.S.S.R. State Com. for Hydromet. and Control of Nat. Env., Obninsk, U.S.S.R.
Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., and Shackleton, N. J.: 1976, ‘Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages’.Science 194, 1121.
Heath, D.: 1973, ‘Space Observations of the Variability of Solar Irradiance in the Near and Far Ultraviolet’.J. Geophys. Res. 78, 2779–2792.
Hibler, W. D., and Johnsen, S. J.: 1979, ‘The 20 yr Cycle in Greenland Ice Core Records’.Nature 280, 481–483.
Hines, C. O., and Halevy, I.: 1977, ‘On the Reality and Nature of a Certain Sun-weather Correlation’.J. of Atm. Sci. 34, 382–404.
Howard, R.: 1978, ‘The Rotation of the Sun’.Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 16, 721–732.
Hoyt, D. V.: 1979a, ‘Variations in Sunspot Structure and Climate’.Climatic Change 2, 79–92.
Hoyt, D. V.: 1979b,Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, pp. 65–68.
Hoyt, D. V.: 1979c, ‘An Empirical Determination of the Heating of the Earth by the Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect’.Nature 282, 388–390.
Izakov, N. M.: 1976, ‘Comparison of Structure and Dynamics of the Earth’s, Mars’ and Venus’ Thermosphere’.J. Atm. Terr. Phys. 38, 847–862.
Ladurie, E. LeR.: 1971,Times of Feast, Times of Famine; a History of Climate since the Year 1000. New York, Doubleday and Company, p. 426.
Lamb, H. H.: 1979, ‘An Approach to the Study of the Development of Climate and its Impact on Human Affairs’. Paper presented at International Conference on Climate and History, Norwich, United Kingdom, July 8–14, 1979. Norwich, pp. 91–108.
Larsen, M. F., and Kelley, C. M.: 1977, ‘A Study of an Observed and Forecasted Meteorological Index and its Relation to the Interplanetary Magnetic Field’.Geophys. Res. Lett. 4, 337–340.
Livingston, C. W.: 1978, ‘Cooling of the Sun’s Photosphere Coincident with Increased Sunspot Activity’.Nature 272, 340–341.
Livingstone, C. W., and Duvall, Jr. T. L.: 1979, ‘Solar Rotation, 1966–1978’.Solar Physics (submitted).
Lowder, W. M., and Beck, H. L.: 1966, ‘Cosmic-Ray Ionization in the Lower Atmosphere’.J. Geophys. Res. 71, 4661–4668.
Markson, R.: 1978, ‘Solar Modulation of Atmospheric Electrification and Possible Implications for the Sun-Weather Relationships’.Nature 273, 103–109.
Mass, C., and Schneider, S. H.: 1977, ‘Statistical Evidence on the Influence of Sunspots and Volcanic Dust on Long-Term Temperature Trends’.J. Atmos. Sci. 34, 1995–2004.
Milankovitch, M.: 1941, ‘Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Anwendung auf des Eiszeitproblem’,R. Serb. Acad., Belgrade p. 633. (Engl. transl., U.S. Dept. Commer., Clearinghouse Fed. Sci. Tech. Inf., Springfield, Virginia, 1969).
Mitchell, J. M. Jr.: 1975, ‘Note on Solar Variability and Volcanic Activity as Potential Sources of Climatic Variability’.GARP Publ. Ser. no. 16, 127–131. WMO, Geneva, 1975.
Mitchell, J. M. Jr.: 1976, ‘An Overview of Climatic Variability and its Causal Mechanisms’.Quaternary Res. 6, 481–493.
Mitchell, J. M. Jr., Stockton, C., and Meko, D. M.: 1978, ‘Evidence of a 22 yr Rhythm of Drought in the Western United States Related to the Hale Solar Cycle Since the 17th Century’. Paper presented at Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, Columbus, Ohio, July 24–28, 1978.
Monin, A. S.: 1972,Weather Forecasting as a Problem in Physics. The MIT Press.
Newton, A., and Nunn, P. H.: 1951, Reviewed by Howard (1978).
Pittock, A. B.: 1978, ‘A Critical Look at Long-Term Sun-Weather Relationships’.Revs. Geophys. Space Physics 16, 400–421.
Porter, S. C.: 1979, ‘Glaciological Evidence of Holocene Climatic Change’. Paper presented at International Conference on Climate and History, Norwich, United Kingdom, July 8–14, 1979. Norwich, pp. 148–179.
Sakurai, K.: 1977, ‘Equatorial Solar Rotation and its Relation to Climate Changes’.Nature 269, 401–402.
Schneider, S. H., and Mass, C.: 1975, ‘Volcanic Dust, Sunspots, and Temperature Trends’.Science 190, 741–746.
Schneider, S. H., Washington, M. W., and Chervin, M. R.: 1978, ‘Cloudiness as a Climatic Feedback Mechanism: Effects on Cloud Amounts of Prescribel Global and Regional Surface Temperature Changes in the NCAR GCM’.J. Atm. Sci. 35, 2207–2221.
Schneider, S. H., and Thompson, S. L.: 1979, ‘Ice Ages and Orbital Variations: Some Simple Theory and Modeling’.Quaternary Res. 12, 188–203.
Sergin, V. Ya.: 1979, ‘Numerical Modeling of the Glaciers-Ocean-Atmosphere Global System’.J. Geophys. Res. 84, 3191–3204.
Shapiro, R., and Stolov, L. H.: 1978, ‘A Search for a Solar Influence on the Skill of Weather Forecasts’.J. Atm. Sci. 35, 2334–2345.
Sofia, S., O’Keefe, J., Lesh, J. R., and Endai, A. S.: 1979, ‘Solar Constant: Constraints on Possible Variations Derived from Solar Diameter Measurements’.Science 204, 1306–1308.
Stuiver, M. and Quay, P. D.: 1980, ‘Changes in Atmospheric Carbon-14 Attributed to a Variable Sun’.Science 207, 11–19.
Suarez, M. J., and Held, I. M.: 1976, ‘Modeling Climatic Response to Orbital Parameter Variations’.Nature 263, 46–47.
Suarez, M. J., and Held, I. M.: 1979, ‘The Sensitivity of an Energy Balance Climate Model to Variations in the Orbital Parameters’.J. Geophys. Res. 84, 4825–2836.
Taylor, B. L., Gal-Chen, T., and Schneider, S. H.: 1980, ‘Volcanic Eruptions and Long-term Temperature Records: An Empirical Search for Cause and Effect’.Quart. J. R. Met. Soc. 106, 175–200.
Thomas, J. H.: 1979, ‘Variations of the Sun’s Radius and Temperature due to Magnetic Buoyancy’.Nature 280, 662–663.
Vonder Haar, T. H., Campbell, G. G., Arking, A. Coulson, K. Hickey, J., House, F., Ingersoll, A., Jacobowitz, H., Smith, W. L., and Steve, L.: 1980, ‘Measurements of the Earth Radiation Budget from Satellites During the First GARP Global Experiment’. Preprint of paper presented at the XXIIIrd COSPAR Plenary Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 7 June 1980.
Weertman, J.: 1976, ‘Milankovitch Solar Radiation Variations and Ice Age Sheet Sizes’.Nature 261, 17–20.
Wilcox, J. M., Scherrer, H. P., Svalgaard, L., Roberts, W. O., Olson, R. H., and Jenne, R. L.: 1974, ‘Influence of Solar Magnetic Sector Structure on Terrestrial Atmospheric Vorticity’.J. Atm. Sci. 31, 581–588.
Willett, C. J.: 1979, ‘Solar Modulation of the Supply Current for Atmospheric Electricity’.J. Geophys. Res. 84, 4999–5002.
Williams, G. R.: 1979, Reply in ‘Matters Arising’,Nature 280, 846.
Willson, R. C., Duncan, C. H., and Geist, S.: 1980, ‘Direct Measurement of Solar Luminosity Variation’.Science 207, 177–179.
Wöhl, H.: 1978, Gab es Änderungen der Solarkonstanten in historischer Zeit? (in German). Sterne und Weltraum, 25–27.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Editor’s note. This article serves as a survey of much of the recent literature on sun/climate effects. It also includes some of the author’s speculations on problems and prospects of certain solar/terrestrial mechanisms. As the entire solar/terrestrial field is, at present, marked by controversies, it is not surprising that reviewers of this article had mixed feelings, particularly in regards to the speculations on solar/terrestrial mechanism. Nevertheless, the article is published to help stimulate and encourage further debate and follow-up studies on the interdisciplinary question of sun/climate relationships.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Molnár, G.Y. A survey of possible effects of long-lasting absence of solar activity on climate and some speculations on possible mechanisms. Climatic Change 3, 189–203 (1981). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02423179
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02423179