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Variations of rainfall and seasonal forecasting in Mauritius

Veränderlichkeiten und jahreszeitliche Vorhersage der Niederschlagsmengen in Mauritius

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Summary

A principal component analysis of rainfall records of 11 stations in Mauritius suggests that 70% of the variance is common to all stations. Rainfall during the summer rainy season, November to April, is closely related to the position of the subtropical high pressure belt over Eastern Australia during the preceding months. The Southern Oscillation has little influence on Mauritian rainfall. Seasonal forecasts are possible.

Zusammenfassung

Eine Analyse der Niederschlagsaufzeichnungen von 11 Orten in Mauritius nach der Hauptkomponenten-Methode zeigt, daß 70% der Varianz der Niederschlagsmenge zu allen Meßpunkten gemeinsam sind. Die Menge des Niederschlages während der Sommer-Regensaison ist mit der Breiteposition des subtropischen Hochdruckgebietes stark verbunden. Es ist daher möglich, die jahrszeitliche Niederschlagsmenge vorauszusagen. Die “Southern Oscillation” beeinflußt den Niederschlag in Mauritius nur wenig.

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Dennett, M.D. Variations of rainfall and seasonal forecasting in Mauritius. Arch. Met. Geoph. Biokl. B. 25, 359–370 (1978). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02243066

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