ISSN:
1573-7179
Keywords:
country risk
;
arrears
;
rescheduling
;
prediction
;
discriminant
;
logit
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Economics
Notes:
Abstract In this article, multivariate statistical models are derived for forecasting the emergence of arrears of debt-service among less-developed countries. The emphasis of the article is on prediction, and the criterion variable differs from that generally used in earlier research, which focuses on rescheduling. Out-of-sample tests are used to establish theex ante predictive utility of the derived models, which are found to have low error rates. Moreover, the predictive ability appears to be stable over time.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01078803