Publication Date:
2019-05-10
Description:
Estimation of time of death based on a single measurement of body
core temperature is a standard procedure in forensic medicine.
Mechanistic models using simulation of heat transport promise
higher accuracy than established phenomenological models in
particular in nonstandard situations, but involve many not exactly
known physical parameters. Identifying both time of death and
physical parameters from multiple temperature measurements is
one possibility to reduce the uncertainty significantly.
In this paper, we consider the inverse problem in a Bayesian setting
and perform both local and sampling-based uncertainty
quantification, where proper orthogonal decomposition is used as
model reduction for fast solution of the forward model. Based on
the local uncertainty quantification, optimal design of experiments
is performed in order to minimize the uncertainty in the time of
death estimate for a given number of measurements. For reasons
of practicability, temperature acquisition points are selected from
a set of candidates in different spatial and temporal locations.
Applied to a real corpse model, a significant accuracy improvement
is obtained already with a small number of measurements.
Language:
English
Type:
reportzib
,
doc-type:preprint
Format:
application/pdf
