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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change: the effects of personal beliefs and scientific uncertainty (1993)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 27 (1993), S. 1962-1972 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00047a001
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00384.x
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A REVIEW OF TECHNICAL CHANGE IN ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE POLICY (1999)
    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Environment and Resources 24 (1999), S. 513-544 
    Details
    ISSN: 1056-3466
    Source: Annual Reviews Electronic Back Volume Collection 1932-2001ff
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Climate policy is often discussed as a lever with which to bring about climate-friendly technical innovation and diffusion. However, quantitative policy assessments routinely treat technological change as a factor that is independent of policy. Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 cannot be achieved through marginal changes in the way we supply and use energy. The only path to stabilization of climate over the next century that is consistent with widely accepted population and economic-growth scenarios involves substantial decoupling of energy services from carbon emissions. The required rate of structural and technical change for such a goal has been experienced only in the wake of economic and resource crises and for periods of a decade or less. Historic rates of structural and technical change averaged over a century are far from adequate for stabilizing climate. In this paper, we review technical changes in the energy system and a few instances in which energy economic models have begun to include technical change as an endogenous feature of their assessments. Finally, we consider the implications of considering endogenous technical change for critical climate policy questions, such as the cost of control and the appropriate timing of the emissions mitigation effort.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.24.1.513
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE AND SECURITY (2004)
    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Environment and Resources 29 (2004), S. 421-469 
    Details
    ISSN: 1543-5938
    Source: Annual Reviews Electronic Back Volume Collection 1932-2001ff
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Concerns about safeguarding key infrastructures (such as energy, communications, banking, and roads) from deliberate attack are long-standing, but since the end to the cold war, emphasis has turned to the possible impacts of terrorism. Activities to address these concerns are sometimes called critical infrastructure protection (CIP), a concept that is somewhat different from the one of "energy security," which focuses on politically and economically motivated supply interruptions. Different elements of the energy infrastructure are characterized by distinct vulnerabilities. Breaches of security in nuclear plants can lead to large-scale environmental disastersbut the infrastructure is concentrated and relatively easy to guard. Oil and gas production, transportation, and refining infrastructures are often spatially concentrated, and disruptions can lead to shortages if supply is not restored before stockpiles are exhausted. Traditional electricity infrastructures suffer from the need for system-wide integrity to ensure supply reliability, having critical facilities spatially concentrated (substations), and insignificant storage capacity for emergency supply. This review discusses how energy infrastructure and security are related, how this relationship differs from traditional energy security concepts, and what it may mean for private and policy decisions. Key concepts include redundancy, diversity, resilience, storage, decentralization, and interdependence. The concept of CIP is still relatively new and is likely to evolve over time, possibly away from a "guards, gates, and guns" defensive approach and toward a design approach that yields systems that are inherently harder to successfully attack. Such survivable systems may feature distributed intelligence, control, and operations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.29.062403.102238
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 33-42 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Uncertainty ; model uncertainty ; epistemic uncertainty ; integrated assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When models must be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006950109424
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A Computational Model of Technological Innovation at the Firm Level (2000)
    Springer
    Computational & mathematical organization theory 6 (2000), S. 227-247 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9346
    Keywords: agent-based model ; technical change ; endogenous growth ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract The factors which speed and slow technological innovation have been of interest to policy makers since at least the mid 1960's. Since that time, many theoretical models of innovation at the firm level and at the industry level have been proposed. Due to limitations in computational complexity, nearly all of these models have assumed a single, representative firm type. Very few have systematically investigated the implications of markets with a variety of firm types. With increases in computing power and the advent of agent-based modeling, interactions between agent types can now be explored. In this paper, a computational model of innovative firms in competitive markets is presented. Firms devote resources to R&D which can lead to new, improved products allowing firms to steal market share from their competitors. Two types of firms, differentiated by the strategies they use in pursuing new innovations, are allowed to coexist. One type pursues exclusively radical innovations, while the other pursues exclusively incremental innovations. It will be demonstrated that under certain conditions, a synergy exists between firms of different types which allows heterogeneous populations of firms to earn more than homogeneous ones.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009689418548
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Uncertainties of climate change (1992)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 355 (1992), S. 197-197 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] SIR - To resolve the uncertainties enveloping global climate change, the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe have embarked on an extensive research effort. We believe that these research programmes will do little to provide a solid scientific foundation for policy decisions ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/355197a0
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Learning from integrated assessment of climate change (1996)
    Springer
    Climatic change 34 (1996), S. 337-368 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The objective of integrated assessment of climate change is to put available knowledge together in order to evaluate what has been learned, policy implications, and research needs. This paper summarizes insights gained from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon. After an introduction, in Section 2 we ask: who are the climate decision makers? We conclude that they are a diffuse and often divergent group spread all over the world whose decisions are primarily driven by local non-climate considerations. Insights are illustrated with results from the ICAM-2 model. In Section 3 we ask: what is the climate problem? In addition to the conventional answer, we note that in a democracy the problem is whatever voters and their elected representatives think it is. Results from studies of public understanding are reported. Several other specific issues that define the problem, including the treatment of aerosols and alternative indices for comparing greenhouse gases, are discussed. In Section 4 we discuss studies of climate impacts, focusing on coastal zones, the terrestrial biosphere and human health. Particular attention is placed on the roles of adaptation, value change, and technological innovation. In Section 5 selected policy issues are discussed. We conclude by noting that equity has received too little attention in past work. We argue that many conventional tools for policy analysis are not adequate to deal with climate problems. Values that change, and mixed levels of uncertainty, pose particularly important challenges for the future.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00139297
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis Are Often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change (1999)
    Springer
    Climatic change 41 (1999), S. 271-281 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005469411776
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate Change Thresholds and Guardrails for Emissions (1999)
    Springer
    Climatic change 41 (1999), S. 297-301 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005445204616
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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