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  • 1
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Probabilistic earthquake prediction ; Aegean area
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Repeat times of large shocks are obtained for 17 seismic fracture zones of the Aegean and surrounding area, from times of historic and present century earthquakes. The mean standard deviation of the repeat times is approximately 50% of any one observation. A probabilistic approach is then used to forecast the likelihood of large future earthquakes in each fracture zone, using as input the time of the last large shock, the average repeat time and its standard deviation. Shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes are examined separately. The calculated probabilities are high for the entire Hellenic arc, both for shallow and intermediate depth seismicity, for the area of Leucas island (Ionian), of Lesbos island (Aegean), for Patraikos-west Corinthiakos Gulfs, for Evoikos Gulf as well as for southern Bulgaria. The probability estimates based on the most recent large earthquakes, involve a number of basic physical assumptions and we would think that they provide a semi-stochastic approach to the problem of earthquake prediction in Greece.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 123 (1985), S. 27-41 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: fault area ; seismic moment ; stress drop ; magnitude
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A data set of nineteen, mainly shallow, moderate to large earthquakes, which occurred in the Aegean and the surrounding area, has been used to derive empirical relations for kinematic fault parameters. Thus the relations between seismic momentM 0 and magnitudeM s andm b and betweenM 0 andM s and fault dimensionsS andL have been determined. From these relations and theoretical ones it was deduced that earthquakes in the Aegean and the surrounding events, chiefly interplate, are characterized by low average stress drop values. Values of Δσ ranging from 1 to 30 bar are consistent with the data. It was also found that, in general terms, most of the data obey the geometrical similarity conditionL=2w, whereL is the fault length measured along the strike andw is its width measured along the dip. For strike-slip faults, however, the conditionL=4w seems to hold.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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