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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Probabilities of occurrence of large earthquakes in the Aegean and surrounding area during the period 1986–2006 (1987)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 125 (1987), S. 597-612 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Probabilistic earthquake prediction ; Aegean area
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Repeat times of large shocks are obtained for 17 seismic fracture zones of the Aegean and surrounding area, from times of historic and present century earthquakes. The mean standard deviation of the repeat times is approximately 50% of any one observation. A probabilistic approach is then used to forecast the likelihood of large future earthquakes in each fracture zone, using as input the time of the last large shock, the average repeat time and its standard deviation. Shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes are examined separately. The calculated probabilities are high for the entire Hellenic arc, both for shallow and intermediate depth seismicity, for the area of Leucas island (Ionian), of Lesbos island (Aegean), for Patraikos-west Corinthiakos Gulfs, for Evoikos Gulf as well as for southern Bulgaria. The probability estimates based on the most recent large earthquakes, involve a number of basic physical assumptions and we would think that they provide a semi-stochastic approach to the problem of earthquake prediction in Greece.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00879574
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Long-term earthquake prediction in the Aegean area based on a time and magnitude predictable model (1993)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 140 (1993), S. 593-612 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; seismicity models ; aegean area
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Aegean and surrounding area (34°N–43°N, 18°E–30°E) is separated into 76 shallow and intermediate depth seismogenic sources. For 74 of these sources intervent times for strong mainshocks have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data. These times have been used to determine the following empirical relations: $$\begin{gathered} \log T_t = 0.24M_{\min } + 0.25M_p - 0.36\log \dot M_0 + 7.36 \hfill \\ M_f = 1.04M_{\min } - 0.31M_p + 0.28\log \dot M_0 - 4.85 \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ whereT 1 is the interevent time, measured in years,M min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest mainshock considered,M p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M f the magnitude of the following mainshock, $$\dot M_0 $$ the moment rate in each source per year. A multiple correlation coefficient equal to 0.74 and a standard deviation equal to 0.18 for the first of these relations were calculated. The corresponding quantities for the second of these relations are 0.91 and 0.22. On the basis of the first of these relations and taking into consideration the time of occurence and the magnitude of the last mainshock, the probabilities for the occurrence of mainshocks in each seismogenic source of this region during the decade 1993–2002 are determined. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected mainshock.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00876578
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Regionalization of seismic hazard in Greece based on seismic sources (1993)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 8 (1993), S. 1-18 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; regionalization ; Greece ; attenuation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A semi-probabilistic approach to the seismic hazard assessment of Greece is presented. For this reason, a recent seismotectonic model for shallow and intermediate depth earthquake sources, based on historical as well as on instrumental data, was used. Different attenuation formulae were proposed for the macroseismic intensity and the strong ground motion parameters for the shallow and the intermediate focal depth shocks. The data were elaborated in terms of McGuire's computer program, which is based on the Cornell's method. A grid of equally spaced points at 20 km distance was made and the seismic hazard recurrence curves for various parameters of the seismic intensity was estimated for each point. Finally, seismic hazard maps for the area of Greece were compiled utilizing the entire range of recurrence curves. These maps depict areas of equal seismic hazard and for every area the analytical relations of the typeSI =f(Tm), whereSI is a seismic intensity parameter andTm is the mean return period, were determined.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00596232
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
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