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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In this article, we describe a straightforward method for solving the probability of at least one malignant cell by time t, and the associated hazard function, in the general (i.e., nonhomogeneous) two-stage Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (MVK) model of cancer. The method consists of solving four coupled ordinary differential equations derived from the Kolmogorov backward equations for this process. The relationship of this method to previously proposed solutions is discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Estimates of the lifetime-absorbed daily dose (LADD) of acrylamide resulting from use of representative personal-care products containing polyacrylamides have been developed. All of the parameters that determine the amount of acrylamide absorbed by an individual vary from one individual to another. Moreover, for some parameters there is uncertainty as to which is the correct or representative value from a range of values. Consequently, the parameters used in the estimation of the LADD of acrylamide from usage of a particular product type (e.g., deodorant, makeup, etc.) were represented by distributions evaluated using Monte Carlo analyses.(1–4) From these data, distributions of values for key parameters, such as the amount of acrylamide in polyacrylamide, absorption fraction, etc., were defined and used to provide a distribution of LADDs for each personal-care product. The estimated total acrylamide LADD (across all products) for males and females at the median, mean, and 95th percentile of the distribution of individual LADD values were 4.7 × 10−8, 2.3 × 10−7, and 7.3 × 10−7 mg/kg/day for females and 3.6 × 10−8, 1.7 × 10−7, and 5.4 × 10−7 mg/kg/day for males. The ratio of the LADDs to risk-specific dose corresponding to a target risk level of 1 × 10−5, the acceptable risk level for this investigation, derived using approaches typically used by the FDA, the USEPA, and proposed for use by the European Union (EU) were also calculated. All ratios were well below 1, indicating that all the extra lifetime cancer risk from the use of polyacrylamide-containing personal-care products, in the manner assumed in this assessment, are well below acceptable levels. Even if it were assumed that an individual used all of the products together, the estimated LADD would still provide a dose that was well below the acceptable risk levels.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The T25 single-point estimate method of evaluating the carcinogenic potency of a chemical, which is currently used by the European Union (EU) and is denoted the EU approach, is based on the selection of a single dose in a chronic bioassay with an incidence rate that is significantly higher than the background rate. The T25 is determined from that single point by a linear extrapolation or interpolation to the chronic dose (in mg/kg/day), at which a 25% increase in the incidence of the specified tumor type is expected, corrected for the background rate. Another method used to obtain a carcinogenic potency value based on a 25% increase in incidence above the background rate is the estimation of a T25 derived from a benchmark dose (BMD) response model fit to the chronic bioassay data for the specified tumor type. A comparison was made between these two methods using 276 chronic bioassays conducted by the National Toxicology Program. In each of the 2-year bioassays, a tumor type was selected based on statistical and biological significance, and both EU T25 and BMD T25 estimates were determined for that end point. In addition, simulations were done using underlying cumulative probability distributions to examine the effect of dose spacing, the number of animals per dose group, the possibility of a dose threshold, and variation in the background incidence rates on the EU T25 and BMD estimates. The simulations showed that in the majority of cases the EU T25 method underestimated the true T25 dose and overestimated the carcinogenic potency. The BMD estimate is generally less biased and has less variation about the true T25 value than the EU estimate.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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