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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Intermediate term earthquake prediction in the area of Greece: Application of the algorithm M8 (1990)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 134 (1990), S. 261-282 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Greece ; earthquake ; intermediate prediction algorithm M8 ; TIP
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The 3 strongest earthquakes,M≥7.0, which have occurred since 1973 in the area of Greece were preceded by a specific increase of the earthquake activity in the lower magnitude range. This activation is depicted by algorithm M8. This algorithm of intermediate term earthquake prediction was originally designed for diagnosis by Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) of the strongest earthquake,M≥8.0 worldwide (Keilis-Borok andKossobokov, 1984). At present the algorithm is retrospectively tested for smaller magnitudes in different seismic regions (Keilis-Borok andKossobokov, 1986, 1988). A TIP refers to a time period of 5 years and an area whose linear size is proportional and several times larger than that of the incipient earthquake source. Altogether the TIPs diagnosed by the algorithm M8 in the area of Greece occupy less than 20% and the Times of Expectation (TEs) about 10% of the total space-time domain considered. Also there is a current TIP for the southeastern Aegean sea and 1988–1992. It may specify the long-term prediction given inWyss andBaer (1981a,b). The results of this study are further evidence favoring applicability of algorithm M8 in diverse seismotectonic environment and magnitude ranges and support indirectly the hypothesis of self-similarity of the earthquake activity. It also implies the possibility of intermediate term prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the area of Greece.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00877001
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Precursory Activation of Seismicity in Advance of the Kobe, 1995, M = 7.2 Earthquake (1999)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 155 (1999), S. 409-423 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key Words: Earthquake prediction, algorithms M8 and MSc, seismicity, Japan.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —A succession of precursory changes of seismicity characteristic to earthquakes of magnitude 7.0–7.5 occurred in advance of the Kobe 1995, M = 7.2, earthquake. Using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) regional catalog of earthquakes, the M8 prediction algorithm (Keilies-Borko and Kossobokov, 1987) recognizes the time of increased probability, TIP, for an earthquake with magnitude 7.0–7.5 from July 1991 through June 1996. The prediction is limited to a circle of 280-km radius centered at 33.5°N, 133.75°E. The broad area of intermediate-term precursory rise of activity encompasses a 175 by 175-km square, where the sequence of earthquakes exhibited a specific intermittent behavior. The square is outlined as the second-approximation reduced area of alarm by the "Mendocino Scenario" algorithm, MSc (Kossobokov et al., 1990). Moreover, since the M8 alarm starts, there were no swarms recorded except the one on 9–26 Nov. 1994, located at 34.9°N, 135.4°E. Time, location, and magnitude of the 1995 Kobe earthquake fulfill the M8-MSc predictions. Its aftershock zone ruptured the 54-km segment of the fault zone marked by the swarm, directly in the corner of the reduced alarm area. The Kobe 1995 epicenter is less than 50 km from the swarm and it coincides with the epicenter of the M 3.5 foreshock which took place 11 hours in advance.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s000240050272
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy: Algorithm M8 (1998)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 152 (1998), S. 37-55 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Earthquake prediction, algorithm M8, seismicity, Italy.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —Large earthquakes in Italy are preceded by a specific seismic activation which could be diagnosed by a reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction method—a modification for lower seismic rate areas of the algorithm, known as M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990). Use has been made of the PFG-ING catalog of earthquakes, compiled on a regular basis, to determine areas and times of increased probability for occurrences of M≥ 6 earthquakes. In retroactive simulation of forward prediction, for the period 1972–1995, both the 1976 Friuli, M = 6.1 and the 1980 Irpinia, M = 6.5 earthquakes are predicted. In the experiment where priority magnitude scale is used, the times of increased probability for a strong earthquake to occur (TIPs) occupy less than a quarter of the total magnitude-space-time domain, and are rather stable with respect to positioning of circles of investiga tion. Successful stability tests have been made considering a recently compiled catalog (CCI97) (Peresan et al., 1997). In combination with the CN algorithm results (Costa et al., 1996) the spatio-temporal uncertainty of the prediction could be reduced to 5%. The use of M8 for the forward prediction requires the computations to be repeated each half-year, using the updated catalog.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s000240050140
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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