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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    European journal of soil science 54 (2003), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-2389
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Dynamic models of nitrogen turnover in soil are being used increasingly in agricultural science. To be of value, a model must be thoroughly evaluated, and the expected accuracy of simulated values must be defined. Frequent field measurements are time-consuming and costly, and so models are often evaluated against only few data. However, this mismatch between the measured and simulated values can result in error statistics that are themselves subject to large errors and therefore unreliable. The dot-to-dot method quantifies the error associated with having too few measured values by interpolating linearly between measured data (hence, dot-to-dot) and evaluating the simulation at each time step using interpolated data where actual measurements are unavailable. A large error will be seen if the measured data do not capture the fluctuations predicted by the model. Other quantitative methods can be used to evaluate the performance of a model, but the dot-to-dot method can be used in conjunction with these to estimate whether or not the data are adequate for testing the model. If the performance of the model at the measured points is within the acceptable error, then the dot-to-dot method is used to judge whether there are too few points to evaluate the model's performance, and so to determine whether the evaluation of the model is valid.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Plant pathology 53 (2004), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: The growth and development of plant pathogens and their hosts generally respond strongly to the temperature of their environment. However, most studies of plant pathology record pathogen/host measurements against physical time (e.g. hours or days) rather than thermal time (e.g. degree-days or degree-hours). This confounds the comparison of epidemiological measurements across experiments and limits the value of the scientific literature.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Data from surveys of winter oilseed rape crops in England and Wales in growing seasons with harvests in 1987–99 were used to construct statistical models to predict, in autumn (October), the incidence of light leaf spot caused by Pyrenopeziza brassicae on winter oilseed rape crops the following spring (March/April), at both regional and individual crop scales. Regions (groups of counties) with similar seasonal patterns of incidence (percentage of plants affected) of light leaf spot were defined by using principal coordinates analysis on the survey data. At the regional scale, explanatory variables for the statistical models were regional weather (mean summer temperature and mean monthly winter rainfall) and survey data for regional light leaf spot incidence (percentage of plants with affected pods) in July of the previous season. At the crop scale, further explanatory variables were crop cultivar (light leaf spot resistance rating), sowing date (number of weeks before/after 1 September), autumn fungicide use and light leaf spot incidence in autumn. Risk of severe light leaf spot (〉 25% plants affected) in a crop in spring was also predicted, and uncertainty in predictions was assessed. The models were validated using data from spring surveys of winter oilseed rape crops in England and Wales from 2000 to 2003, and reasons for uncertainty in predictions for individual crops are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: A compartmental model was developed to describe the progress with time of light leaf spot (Pyrenopeziza brassicae) on leaves of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) during the autumn in the UK. Differential equations described the transition between the four compartments: healthy susceptible leaves, infected symptomless leaves, sporulating symptomless leaves and leaves with necrotic light leaf spot lesions, respectively. The model was fitted to data on the progress of light leaf spot on winter oilseed rape at a single site during the autumn of the 1990–1991 season. Model parameters were used to describe rates of leaf appearance, leaf death, infection by airborne ascospores (primary inoculum) and infection by splash-dispersed conidiospores (secondary inoculum). Infection was dependent on sufficient leaf wetness duration. The model also included delay terms for the latent period between infection and sporulation and the incubation period between infection and the appearance of necrotic light leaf spot lesions. This modified SEIR model formulation gave a reasonable fit to the experimental data. Sensitivity analysis showed that varying the parameter accounting for the rate of infection by ascospores affected the magnitude of the curves after the start of the epidemic, whilst including a parameter for conidiospore infection improved the fit to the data. Use of ascospore counts from different sites and different years showed variation in spore release patterns sufficient to affect model predictions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, U.K. and Cambridge, USA : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Plant pathology 45 (1996), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: In controlled environment experiments, when oilseed rape pods or leaves were inoculated with spore suspensions of Alternaria brassicae, the maximum disease incidence (proportion of pods or leaves diseased) increased as wetness period after inoculation increased from 4 to 24 h and as temperature increased to 20°C. There was a clear relationship between disease incidence on pods and incidence on leaves with the same wetness/temperature conditions. Logistic equations described the effects of wetness period after inoculation on disease incidence (number of pods or leaves infected) or disease severity (number of lesions on pods or leaves) using temperature-dependent and tissue-dependent parameters. The time from inoculation to the appearance of the first lesions was shorter on pods than on leaves at temperatures ≤15°C and wetness periods ≤12 h. Two-dimensional response surface equations or simple interpolations from one-dimensional equations were used to develop contour maps of expected disease incidence and severity, respectively, on leaves or pods to estimate the effects of different combinations of wetness period during infection and temperature on disease development.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: The effects of temperature on the development of light leaf spot (Pyrenopeziza brassicae) on winter oilseed rape were investigated in controlled-environment experiments. The proportion of conidia which germinated on leaves, the growth rate of germ tubes, the severity of light leaf spot and the production of conidia increased with increasing temperature from 5 to 15 C. The time to 50% germination of conidia and the incubation and latent periods of light leaf spot lesions decreased when temperature increased from 5 to 15°C. At 20°C, however, light leaf spot severity and production of conidia were less and the incubation and latent periods were longer than at 15 C. There were differences between P brassicae isolates and oilseed rape cultivars in the severity of light leaf spot, the production of conidia and the length of the incubation period but not in the length of the latent period. The responses to temperature for lesion severity and incubation and latent periods appeared to be approximately linear over the temperature range 5-15°C and could be quantified using linear regression analysis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: The spread of septoria leaf blotch in wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola is widely reported to depend on the occurrence of splashy rainfall. Previous studies have also implicated an important effect of canopy architecture on the risk of disease spread. This is because architecture affects the proximity of the yield-forming leaves to inoculum present on older diseased leaves within the crop. This study demonstrated that infection of the final three leaves of winter wheat could occur in the absence of splashy rainfall. For cvs Riband and Longbow, the final two leaf layers emerged at a position ≈ 8 cm below older leaves containing sporulating lesions. Under these conditions, infection of new leaves occurred in treatments that simulated dew and nonsplashy rainfall. These treatments resulted in disease incidences of 10–40% above the untreated control on the final two leaf layers. Within a season, the distance between diseased and healthy leaves during the period of stem extension varied substantially across a range of 30 cultivars. While the magnitude of these differences was not the same across seasons, the relative differences between cultivars were generally consistent, suggesting a strong genotype influence on lesion proximity. This study shows how knowledge of the distribution of lesion proximity within a crop can be used to estimate the risk of inoculum transfer for a given maximum splash height. A rapid crop-monitoring method for estimating the distribution of lesion proximity was developed and tested. Lesion proximity was manipulated by plant growth regulator (PGR) treatments. Significant increases in disease, between 14 and 62%, were observed on the upper canopy leaves of plants treated with PGR. The largest differences were observed in treatments where lesion proximity was most affected.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Effects of regular treatments with the fungicides carbendazim and prochloraz applied to whole plots divided into subplots with different initial population mixtures of carbendazim-sensitive or carbendazim-resistant Tapesia yallundae or T. acuformis were studied in successive crops of winter wheat from 1984/85 to 1999/2000. In unsprayed and carbendazim-sprayed whole plots, a stable coexistence of about 50% each of T. yallundae and T. acuformis developed within five seasons, but in whole plots sprayed with prochloraz or prochloraz plus carbendazim, the proportion of T. acuformis increased to 〉 80%. A discrete time difference equation model was derived from knowledge of the biology of eyespot and competition theory to describe the population changes. The model was fitted to the data from treatments where coexistence occurred [subplots in unsprayed (1985–92) and carbendazim-sprayed (1985–89) whole plots], using nonlinear least squares regression. The optimized value of the resource overlap coefficient was small, suggesting niche differences between the two species. Populations were nearly 100% carbendazim-resistant in carbendazim-sprayed whole plots by July 1985 (one season) and in whole plots sprayed with prochloraz plus carbendazim by July 1986 (two seasons). In prochloraz-sprayed whole plots, the proportion of carbendazim-resistant isolates decreased more rapidly than in unsprayed whole plots in the 1980s, but by July 1992 a shift in populations in unsprayed and prochloraz-sprayed whole plots towards predominantly carbendazim-resistant strains had occurred.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: A model was developed to describe the effects of temperature and leaf wetness duration in controlled-environment experiments on the development of light leaf spot on oilseed rape (cv. Bristol) leaves inoculated with Pyrenopeziza brassicae conidial suspensions. A Gompertz function was used to describe the progress with time in percentage leaf area with sporulation, and included the parameters maximum percentage leaf area with sporulation (c); maximum rate of increase in percentage leaf area with sporulation (r); and latent period (l, the time from inoculation until the leaf area with sporulation reached 37% of c). The effects of leaf wetness duration on c and r were also described with Gompertz functions, which included the parameters minimum leaf wetness duration (vc or vr); and maximum of c (mc) or maximum of r (mr). The effects of temperature on mc, vc and vr were described by quadratic functions, and the effect of temperature on mr was described by a linear function. The combined model described the progress with time in percentage leaf area with sporulation, including the effects of temperature and leaf wetness duration on the parameters c, r and l. It generally fitted well to the observed data. Latent periods in previously published experiments were predicted accurately by the model, but percentage leaf area with sporulation was not. Assuming a great number of conidia were dispersed and infection occurred when there was 2 mm h−1 rain for 0·5 h, the model estimates for latent period were used to predict the dates when large increases in light leaf spot severity occurred in experiments at Rothamsted on winter oilseed rape (cv. Bristol) under natural conditions in 1998/99 and 1999/2000. The predictions agreed with the observations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1365-3059
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Experiments in controlled environments were carried out to determine the effects of temperature and leaf wetness duration on infection of oilseed rape leaves by conidia of the light leaf spot pathogen, Pyrenopeziza brassicae. Visible spore pustules developed on leaves of cv. Bristol inoculated with P. brassicae conidia at temperatures from 4 to 20°C, but not at 24°C; spore pustules developed when the leaf wetness duration after inoculation was longer than or equal to approximately 6 h at 12–20°C, 10 h at 8°C, 16 h at 6°C or 24 h at 4°C. On leaves of cvs. Capricorn or Cobra, light leaf spot symptoms developed at 8 and 16°C when the leaf wetness duration after inoculation was greater than 3 or 24 h, respectively. The latent period (the time period from inoculation to first spore pustules) of P. brassicae on cv. Bristol was, on average, approximately 10 days at 16°C when leaf wetness duration was 24 h, and increased to approximately 12 days as temperature increased to 20°C and to 26 days as temperature decreased to 4°C. At 8°C, an increase in leaf wetness duration from 10 to 72 h decreased the latent period from approximately 25 to 16 days; at 6°C, an increase in leaf wetness duration from 16 to 72 h decreased the latent period from approximately 23 to 17 days. The numbers of conidia produced were greatest at 12–16°C, and decreased as temperature decreased to 8°C or increased to 20°C. At temperatures from 8 to 20°C, an increase in leaf wetness duration from 6 to 24 h increased the production of conidia. There were linear relationships between the number of conidia produced on a leaf and the proportion of the leaf area covered by ‘lesions’ (both log10-transformed) at different temperatures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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