Library

Description: Sampling rare events in metastable dynamical systems is often a computationally expensive task and one needs to resort to enhanced sampling methods such as importance sampling. Since we can formulate the problem of finding optimal importance sampling controls as a stochastic optimization problem, this then brings additional numerical challenges and the convergence of corresponding algorithms might as well suffer from metastabilty. In this article we address this issue by combining systematic control approaches with the heuristic adaptive metadynamics method. Crucially, we approximate the importance sampling control by a neural network, which makes the algorithm in principle feasible for high dimensional applications. We can numerically demonstrate in relevant metastable problems that our algorithm is more effective than previous attempts and that only the combination of the two approaches leads to a satisfying convergence and therefore to an efficient sampling in certain metastable settings.

Description: In multiscale modeling of heterogeneous catalytic processes, one crucial point is the solution of a Markovian master equation describing the stochastic reaction kinetics. Usually, this is too high-dimensional to be solved with standard numerical techniques and one has to rely on sampling approaches based on the kinetic Monte Carlo method. In this study we break the curse of dimensionality for the direct solution of the Markovian master equation by exploiting the Tensor Train Format for this purpose. The performance of the approach is demonstrated on a first principles based, reduced model for the CO oxidation on the RuO2(110) surface. We investigate the complexity for increasing system size and for various reaction conditions. The advantage over the stochastic simulation approach is illustrated by a problem with increased

Description: We propose numerical algorithms for solving optimal control and importance sampling problems based on simplified models. The algorithms combine model reduction techniques for multiscale diffusions and stochastic optimization tools, with the aim of reducing the original, possibly high-dimensional problem to a lower dimensional representation of the dynamics, in which only a few relevant degrees of freedom are controlled or biased. Specifically, we study situations in which either a reaction coordinate onto which the dynamics can be projected is known, or situations in which the dynamics shows strongly localized behavior in the small noise regime. No explicit assumptions about small parameters or scale separation have to be made. We illustrate the approach with simple, but paradigmatic numerical examples.

Description: The reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is a lattice-based stochastic model for spatially resolved cellular processes. It is often interpreted as an approximation to spatially continuous reaction-diffusion models, which, in the limit of an infinitely large population, may be described by means of reaction-diffusion partial differential equations. Analyzing and understanding the relation between different mathematical models for reaction-diffusion dynamics is a research topic of steady interest. In this work, we explore a route to the hydrodynamic limit of the RDME which uses gradient structures. Specifically, we elaborate on a method introduced in [J. Maas and A. Mielke, J. Stat. Phys., 181 (2020), pp. 2257–2303] in the context of well-mixed reaction networks by showing that, once it is complemented with an appropriate limit procedure, it can be applied to spatially extended systems with diffusion. Under the assumption of detailed balance, we write down a gradient structure for the RDME and use the method in order to produce a gradient structure for its hydrodynamic limit, namely, for the corresponding RDPDE.

Description: Molecular simulations of ligand-receptor interactions are a computational challenge, especially when their association- (``on''-rate) and dissociation- (``off''-rate) mechanisms are working on vastly differing timescales. In addition, the timescale of the simulations themselves is, in practice, orders of magnitudes smaller than that of the mechanisms; which further adds to the complexity of observing these mechanisms, and of drawing meaningful and significant biological insights from the simulation. One way of tackling this multiscale problem is to compute the free-energy landscapes, where molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories are used to only produce certain statistical ensembles. The approach allows for deriving the transition rates between energy states as a function of the height of the activation-energy barriers. In this article, we derive the association rates of the opioids fentanyl and N-(3-fluoro-1-phenethylpiperidin-4-yl)- N-phenyl propionamide (NFEPP) in a $\mu$-opioid receptor by combining the free-energy landscape approach with the square-root-approximation method (SQRA), which is a particularly robust version of Markov modelling. The novelty of this work is that we derive the association rates as a function of the pH level using only an ensemble of MD simulations. We also verify our MD-derived insights by reproducing the in vitro study performed by the Stein Lab, who investigated the influence of pH on the inhibitory constant of fentanyl and NFEPP (Spahn et al. 2017). MD simulations are far more accessible and cost-effective than in vitro and in vivo studies. Especially in the context of the current opioid crisis, MD simulations can aid in unravelling molecular functionality and assist in clinical decision-making; the approaches presented in this paper are a pertinent step forward in this direction.

Description: This article addresses reaction networks in which spatial and stochastic effects are of crucial importance. For such systems, particle-based models allow us to describe all microscopic details with high accuracy. However, they suffer from computational inefficiency if particle numbers and density get too large. Alternative coarse-grained-resolution models reduce computational effort tremendously, e.g., by replacing the particle distribution by a continuous concentration field governed by reaction-diffusion PDEs. We demonstrate how models on the different resolution levels can be combined into hybrid models that seamlessly combine the best of both worlds, describing molecular species with large copy numbers by macroscopic equations with spatial resolution while keeping the stochastic-spatial particle-based resolution level for the species with low copy numbers. To this end, we introduce a simple particle-based model for the binding dynamics of ions and vesicles at the heart of the neurotransmission process. Within this framework, we derive a novel hybrid model and present results from numerical experiments which demonstrate that the hybrid model allows for an accurate approximation of the full particle-based model in realistic scenarios.

Description: Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss