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  • 1
    ISSN: 1573-7284
    Keywords: Coronary heart disease ; Mortality ; Prediction ; Risk factors
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Medicine
    Notes: Abstract Two cohorts of men aged 40–59 in geographically defined areas of Croatia, former Yugoslavia, were enrolled in 1958 and cardiovascular risk factors were measured. The cohort of Dalmatia, on the Adriatic coast, was made up of 671 men (participation rate 98%), that of Slavonia, in the inland plain, of 696 men (participation rate 91%). Similar examinations were repeated 5 and 10 years after the entry one. A complete follow-up for vital status and causes of death was run for 25 years. Death rates in 25 year from coronary heart disease (CHD) were 90 per 1000 in Dalmatia and 148 per 1000 in Slavonia where also all other major causes of death and all-cause mortality rates were higher (642 vs 465 per 1000 in 25 years). Univariate and multivariate analysis relating ten risk factors to CHD mortality, showed that age and systolic blood pressure were significant predictors in Dalmatia; age, subscapular skinfold and body mass index (inverse) in Slavonia; and age, systolic blood pressure and subscapular skinfold in a multivariate model with lumped cohorts, where dummy variables identifying cohorts indicated a large unexplained extra-risk in Slavonia. In the pooled analysis cigarette smoking and serum cholesterol carried non significant coefficients. Blood pressure change in the first 10 years of follow-up added predictivity to a model exploring the delayed CHD morality occurring between year 10 and 25 of follow-up. Among the base-line mea surements only serum cholesterol was significantly different between the two groups (188 mg/dl in Dalmatia and 199 mg/dl in Slavonia). The method for covariance adjustment of rates based on the logistic regression was able to explain only 9% of the difference in CHD mortality between the two cohorts using the available risk factors. Dietary habits, measured only on subsamples, add some explanation in CHD mortality difference between the two cohorts.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1573-7284
    Keywords: Coronary heart disease ; Risk factors ; Population comparison
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Medicine
    Notes: Abstract Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40–59 years at entry were examined with the measurement of some risk factors and then followed-up for mortality and causes of death for 25 years. These cohorts were located in the USA (1 cohort), Finland (2), the Netherlands (1), Italy (3), the former Yugoslavia (5), Greece (2), and Japan (2), and included a total of 12,763 subjects. Large differences in age-adjusted coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates were found, with extremes of 45 per 1000 in 25 years in Tanushimaru, Japan, to 288 per 1000 in 25 years in East Finland. In general, higher rates were found in the US and Northern European cohorts as compared to the Southern European and Japanese cohorts. However, during the last 10 years of follow-up large increases of CHD death rates were found in some Yugoslavian areas. Out of 5 measured entry characteristics treated as age-adjusted levels (serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index and physical activity at work), only serum cholesterol was significant in explaining cohort differences in CHD death rates. Over 50% of the variance in CHD death rates in 25 years was accounted for by the difference in mean serum cholesterol. This association tended to decline with increasing length of follow-up, but this was due to the great changes in mean serum cholesterol in the two Jugoslavian cohorts of Velika Krsna and Zrenjanin. When these two cohorts were excluded the association increased with time. Changes in mean serum cholesterol between year 0 and 10 helped in explaining differences in CHD death rates from year 10 onward. It can be concluded that this study suggests that mean serum cholesterol is the major risk factor in explaining cross-cultural differences in CHD.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1573-7284
    Keywords: All causes mortality ; Multivariate analysis ; Risk functions ; Prediction ; Epidemiology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Medicine
    Notes: Abstract Nine population samples of mean aged 40–59, for a total of 1777 individuals drawn from nine health units, were examined in 1978–79 for the measurement of some risk factors possibly related to total mortality. The analysis evaluated the possible relationship between blood pressure levels and smoking habits measured in the population samples and the official death rates covering the period 1980–82 in the health units from which the samples were drawn. The analysis was conducted in a direct way but also by the help of a risk function linking blood pressure and smoking habits as obtained from another Italian population sample. The cograduation test between mean blood pressure in the nine areas and total mortality was 0.58 (linear correlation 0.57); the cograduation test was-0.70 for non-smokers, 0.62 for ex-smokers, 0.50 for present smokers (linear correlation of-0.27, 0.29, and 0.14 respectively). The death rates estimated by the risk function (Cox model) tended to overestimate the death rates from 5 to 64% (average 36.3%). The cograduation test between expected and observed death rates was 0.56 (linear correlation coefficient 0.66). Some limitations of this pilot study are largely explained by the small size of the sample and by the need to use a risk function provided by another population sample.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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